We think so. We have been encouraged by the stability of home sales throughout the weak recovery. While the pace of around 4.6 million total sales is nothing to write home about, it's certainly not nothing. High levels of affordability, rising rents and a gradually improving labor market make it likely that we will see a gradual upward homebuying trend in 2012, perhaps closing in on a 5.5 million annualized pace by year end. To be fair, that would still be well below the frenzied peak of over 8 million annual sales in mid-2005, but it would also signal that recovery is taking hold.
Of course, this depends upon the continued improvement of the labor market, not a certain thing by any means. However, the still-lean job market seems better able to manage shocks at this point and might not deteriorate too much should another significant one (like the Japan crisis of 2011) occur in 2012.
A 25-year expert observer of the mortgage and consumer debt markets, Keith Gumbinger has been cited in thousands of articles covering a wide range of consumer finance and economic topics in outlets ranging from the Wall Street Journal to the Bottom Line newsletters. He has been a featured guest on national broadcasts for CNN, CNBC, ABC, CBS and NBC television networks and has been heard on NPR and other national and local radio programs. Keith is the primary researcher and writer for HSH.com's MarketTrends newsletter and has authored or co-authored a number of consumer guides on mortgages, home equity, refinancing and more.
